There is no direct data in the provided references for India’s exports to the United States specifically from January to September 2025. However, some sources provide partial or related information that can help piece together an estimate or context for this period.
Key Points from Available Data:
(1) Quarterly Data (January to March 2025): From January to March 2025, India exported goods worth $27.7 billion to the United States, as reported by the United States Census Bureau. This figure is from a source indicating a strong first quarter, with a record high of $11.2 billion in March 2025 alone.
(2) Annual Context for 2024-25: For the fiscal year 2024-25 (April 2024 to March 2025), India’s total merchandise exports to the US were approximately $86.5 billion, with a trade surplus of $41.2 billion. For April to November 2024, India’s exports to the US were reported at $52.95 billion, covering major sectors like engineering goods ($12.33 billion), electronic goods ($6.79 billion), drugs and pharmaceuticals ($6.34 billion), and gems and jewelry. These figures suggest that the remaining months (December 2024 to March 2025) contributed significantly to the annual total, with December 2024 alone recording $7.017 billion in exports.
(3) Challenges Due to Tariffs: Starting in April 2025, the US imposed a 26% additional tariff on Indian goods (excluding pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and certain energy products), which could impact export performance in later months of 2025. A report projects a $5.76 billion decline in India’s merchandise exports to the US for the full year of 2025 due to these tariffs, particularly affecting sectors like electronics, seafood, and gold.
An additional 25% tariff was imposed in August 2025 due to India’s purchases of Russian oil, bringing the combined tariff to 50% for affected goods, potentially threatening $48.2 billion in exports.
Estimation For January To September 2025
Since exact monthly data for January to September 2025 is unavailable, we can make an informed estimate based on the quarterly data and annual trends:
(a) The first quarter (January to March 2025) contributed $27.7 billion.
(b) For April to September 2025, no specific monthly breakdown is provided, but we can extrapolate from the April to November 2024 figure of $52.95 billion over 8 months, which averages roughly $6.62 billion per month. Assuming a similar monthly export rate for April to September 2025 (6 months), exports could be approximately $39.72 billion (6 months × $6.62 billion). However, this assumes no significant disruption from the April 2025 tariff hikes.
(c) Adjusting for the reported tariff impact, a 6.41% decline in exports for 2025, which could reduce the monthly average slightly. If we conservatively estimate a 5% reduction due to tariffs, the monthly average might drop to around $6.29 billion, leading to approximately $37.74 billion for April to September 2025.
Total Estimate For January To September 2025
Combining the first quarter ($27.7 billion) with an estimated April to September ($37.74 billion), India’s exports to the US from January to September 2025 could be approximately $65.44 billion. This is a rough estimate, as tariff impacts and sector-specific exemptions (e.g., pharmaceuticals and electronics) could alter the actual figures.
Key Sectors
Based on data for 2024-25, the major export categories to the US include:
(a) Engineering Goods: ~$12.33 billion (April-November 2024), though expected to decline in 2025 due to tariffs.
(b) Electronic Goods: ~$6.79 billion (April-November 2024), though expected to decline in 2025 due to tariffs.
(c) Pharmaceuticals: ~$6.34 billion (April-November 2024), largely exempt from additional tariffs, but tariffs may apply soon and expected to decline once tariffs are implemented.
(d) Gems and Jewelry: ~$6.28 billion (April-November 2024), projected to significantly decline in 2025.
(e) Textiles: ~$3.32 billion (April-November 2024), though expected to decline significantly in 2025 due to tariffs.
The estimate is speculative due to the lack of specific monthly data for April to September 2025 and the unpredictable impact of US tariffs. The actual value could be lower if tariff effects are more severe or higher if India mitigates losses through trade negotiations or diversification.