The 50% tariff on select Indian exports to the U.S. (a combination of the initial 25-26% reciprocal tariff imposed in April 2025 and an additional 25% punitive tariff effective August 27, 2025) applies to approximately 55-66% of India’s total merchandise exports to the U.S. This affects labor-intensive sectors such as textiles, gems and jewellery, garments, footwear, furniture, industrial chemicals, shrimp/seafood, carpets, and leather. Exemptions include pharmaceuticals, petroleum products, and certain electronics/semiconductors (though some face separate tariffs at lower rates like 25% for aluminium and steel).
Based on available data, the actual impact on exports during January to September 2025 is limited because the full 50% tariff only took effect in late August. However, the initial tariff from April contributed to a noticeable decline in overall exports starting then. Projections from various reports indicate that exports in the affected sectors are expected to decline by 70% due to the 50% tariff, potentially reducing their value from about $60.2 billion to $18.6 billion annually. Overall Indian exports to the US could fall by 43% in the coming year, but for the specific period of January to September 2025, the cumulative decline in affected exports is estimated at 25-35% from the pre-tariff peak (March 2025), based on monthly trends and early tariff effects, with further drops anticipated in September data once available.
Monthly Exports From India To The U.S. (January To July 2025)
Data is sourced from US Census Bureau and Indian Ministry of Commerce reports (in USD billion; August and September data not yet released as of September 3, 2025). Note the peak in March before the initial tariff, followed by a steady decline.
| Month | Exports (USD Billion) | Percentage Change from Previous Month |
|---|---|---|
| January | 8.15 | – |
| February | 8.35 | +2.45% |
| March | 11.19 | +34.01% |
| April | 10.02 | -10.46% |
| May | 9.44 | -5.79% |
| June | 9.15 | -3.07% |
| July | 8.01 | -12.46% |
Cumulative exports from January to July 2025: approximately $64.31 billion. If August exports (pre-tariff for most of the month) are estimated at $7.5-8.0 billion and September at $6.5-7.0 billion (accounting for full tariff impact), the total for January to September could be $78-79 billion, reflecting a ~25% decline from a projected no-tariff baseline of ~$100 billion (extrapolated from FY25 trends).
Also See
(1) Estimated Exports By India To United States From January To September 2025
(2) IPhone Exports From India To The United States In 2025
(3) Monthly Imports By India From The United States (January To July 2025)
Countries Substituting/Replacing India For Tariffed Items
The high tariffs make Indian goods less competitive, leading U.S. buyers to shift sourcing to lower-tariff or tariff-free alternatives. Key countries benefiting include:
(1) Vietnam: Gaining in textiles, garments, footwear, and electronics (e.g., shirts costing $12 vs. India’s tariff-inflated $16.40).
(2) Bangladesh: Replacing in apparel, textiles, and shrimp/seafood (e.g., shirts at $13.20).
(3) Mexico: Benefiting from USMCA advantages in textiles, auto components, and furniture.
(4) China: Despite its own tariffs, competitive in chemicals, jewellery, and textiles (e.g., shirts at $14.20).
(5) Turkey: Taking share in carpets, textiles, and jewellery.
(6) Pakistan and Nepal: Emerging in textiles and leather goods.
(7) Guatemala and Kenya: Niche gains in apparel and seafood.
These shifts could become permanent if tariffs persist, as competitors lock in supply chains. For example, US shrimp imports from India may drop significantly, with Bangladesh and Vietnam filling the gap due to lower costs.
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