Note: The term “DII Bubble” has been coined by Praveen Dalal, CEO of Sovereign P4LO.
When the stock market of a nation collapses, such nation tries to control it by using various methods. But all these methods are legitimate and they are not risky. However, when Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) are abused and pushed to prevent total collapse of a stock market, that is a recipe for disaster.
This stock market fiasco is happening in India where the prices of already overvalued, underweight and super cheap shares are inflated artificially by pushing DIIs to invest in them. In the Indian context, Modi govt is pushing DIIs to invest in companies listed at Sensex and Nifty 50, thereby helping them to maintain a stable price for their shares. In truth, the prices of such shares are less than half what has been projected and they are on ventilator of DIIs infusion. The moment that is stopped, these companies and stock market of India would collapse. This is so because the “DII Bubble” would burst beyond recovery and redemption.
Definition Of DII Bubble By Praveen Dalal, CEO Of Sovereign P4LO
The term “DII Bubble” has been coined by Praveen Dalal, CEO of Sovereign P4LO.
“DII Bubble” refers to the significant increase in investments by DIIs in a stock market that is already over valued, underweight, has negative returns and is not a favourable one to invest into. This artificially inflates prices of shares listed therein and makes it very risky says Praveen Dalal.
All these criteria are squarely applicable to stock market of India. Shares are over valued, market and shares are underweight and risky, returns are in negative and the stock market of India is least favourable one in Asia. Despite all these apparent limitations of stock market of India, Modi govt is pushing and forcing DIIs to invest in shares of top companies. This has created a “DII Bubble” in the stock market of India that could burst any time. When it would burst, DIIs (and Indians through them) would be left with mass losses that cannot be covered at all. This is one of the reasons why stock market of India would surely collapse till 2030.
As DIIs have been buying aggressively, their share in the market has surpassed that of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), leading to creation of a “DII Bubble” in India. This situation has become complicated due to negligible Net FDI in 2024-25.
Gross FDI inflows reached $81 billion in FY24-25 (up 14% YoY), but net FDI was near-zero due to $29.2 billion OFDI and $51.5 billion repatriation. For August 2024 (latest comparable), inflows were $6.39 billion (peak month), while outflows were $3.35 billion—highlighting a balanced but outflow-heavy dynamic.
See Also
With just 3% Net FDI available to India in 2025 and an increasing FII selling in the stock market of India since 2024, we are left with this “Risky DII Bubble” of the Indian stock market says Praveen Dalal.
See Also
(1) Dangers Of Long Term DIIs Investments In Stock Market Of India
(2) FIIs Withdrawal From India Till August 2025 And Impact Upon Stock Market Of India
(3) Potential Reasons For A Collapse Of The Stock Market Of India By 2030
(4) Brutal And Total Net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Decline In India In 2025
Overview Of Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs)
DIIs include entities like mutual funds, insurance companies, public sector banks, and pension funds that invest in the Indian stock market. They have gained significant influence, especially in recent years, as their share of the market has increased.
DII Market Share Growth
As of March 31, 2025, DIIs held 17.62% of the Indian capital market, surpassing Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) at 17.22%. DII holdings reached ₹71.76 lakh crore, which is 2% higher than FII holdings.
Recent Trends In DII Investments
DIIs have shown resilience despite challenges such as high valuations and foreign selling. Their inflows have been substantial:
In 2025, DIIs invested ₹5.13 lakh crore in the first eight months, nearly tripling the ₹1.81 lakh crore from 2023. Monthly inflows have varied, with significant investments in January (₹86,591 crore) and August (₹94,828 crore).
Factors Driving DII Confidence
Increased retail investor participation has bolstered DII confidence. Despite foreign selling, DIIs have maintained a strong presence, cushioning the market’s volatility.
Concerns About A Potential Bubble
While DIIs are currently strong players in the market, concerns about a bubble exist:
The Price to Earnings (PE) ratio for the NIFTY 50 index has been historically high, indicating potential overvaluation. The Market Capitalisation to GDP ratio is at a 13-year high, suggesting that the stock market may be larger than the underlying economy can support.
In other words, while DIIs are currently thriving and driving market activity, the high valuations and economic indicators raise questions about the sustainability of this growth.
When A DII Bubble Occurs
A DII Bubble occurs when sustained DII investment props up overvalued stock markets, masking underlying issues and leading to sharp corrections when the bubble eventually bursts. While DIIs, such as mutual funds, insurance companies (like LIC), and banks, have historically provided stability, their significant buying can inflate valuations, especially when FIIs are exiting due to high domestic valuations or global factors. If market realities set in, such as an economic slowdown or global recession, and these DII-managed funds face large-scale redemptions, they can quickly shift from being buyers to sellers, intensifying market declines and bursting of the bubble.
How A DII Bubble Forms
Praveen Dalal explains the process of formation of a DII Bubble as follows:
(a) FII Outflows: Foreign investors leaves the Indian market due to factors like high local valuations, rising global interest rates, or a shift to safer assets.
(b) DII Inflows: DIIs step in to buy the shares that FIIs are selling, often driven by their mandate to invest domestically or to support the market.
(c) Inflated Valuations: This sustained DII buying keeps stock prices elevated or push them higher, even when the underlying economic fundamentals do not justify these valuations or even half of their inflated prices.
(d) Bubble Creation: By masking these issues, DIIs intentionally fuel an asset bubble, where asset/stock prices far exceed their intrinsic worth.
(e) Market Correction: The bubble bursts when investors (including DIIs) realise the market is overvalued, or when external economic shocks occur. This realisation can trigger panic selling, causing market declines to accelerate.
Dangers For DIIs
(a) Losses for Long-Term Holders: DIIs, which manage funds for long-term investors such as policyholders and pension fund subscribers, are at risk of significant losses when a market correction occurs.
(b) Exacerbated Declines: If a crisis hits, and DIIs need to sell to meet redemption requests, their selling can worsen market downturns, making the correction more severe.
The Indian Context
In recent periods, particularly in early to mid-2025, DIIs have been instrumental in absorbing significant foreign outflows, helping to stabilise the Indian market and even push the overall ownership of Indian companies into DII hands. However, this strong domestic buying can also contribute to market overheating if FII exits continue, potentially creating a situation ripe for a sharp correction.
Let us now discuss in detail why a DII-Driven Bubble could be risky.
(1) Overvaluation Of Stocks
(a) DIIs have significantly increased their investments in Indian equities, with their share in NSE-listed companies reaching an all-time high of 17.62% by March 31, 2025, surpassing FIIs at 17.22%. Heavy DII buying, especially through Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) and mutual funds, has driven market resilience despite FII outflows. However, this sustained inflow can push valuations to unsustainable levels, particularly in mid- and small-cap stocks, which have seen sharp rises.
(b) High valuations, with India’s market cap-to-GDP ratio at a 13-year high of 115% in 2021, suggest stocks may be overpriced relative to economic output. If DIIs continue to pour money into overvalued segments, a correction could wipe out gains, especially for retail investors chasing momentum.
(2) Retail Investor Overexposure
(a) DIIs, particularly mutual funds, rely on retail money through SIPs, which saw net inflows of ₹1.16 lakh crore in Q1 2025. The influx of retail investors, with 6.3 million new demat accounts added from April to September 2020, fuels speculative buying. Social media and financial influencers amplify this, creating a perception that markets only go up, which could lead to irrational exuberance.
(b) When the bubble will burst, retail investors, who often lack the expertise or risk management of DIIs, could face significant losses, eroding confidence and savings.
(3) Market Dependence On DII Inflows
DIIs have acted as a stabilising force, countering FII sell-offs (e.g., ₹55,595 crore invested in March 2020 when FIIs were net sellers). However, this creates a dependency where markets may not correct naturally, masking underlying weaknesses. If DII inflows slow due to economic shocks or policy changes, markets could face sharp declines, as seen during past FII outflows triggered by global events or tighter RBI policies.
(4) Sector-Specific Froth
SEBI’s chairperson flagged “pockets of froth” in small- and mid-cap segments, hinting at a potential bubble. DIIs have increased allocations to sectors like Consumer Discretionary (15.27% of holdings in Q2 2024), which may be overvalued due to speculative buying. A correction in these segments could ripple across the market, impacting DII-heavy portfolios.
(5) Economic And Policy Risks
High inflation, tighter RBI monetary policies, or global events like U.S. interest rate hikes could reduce liquidity, prompting DIIs to scale back investments. This could trigger a sell-off, especially if corporate earnings fail to justify current valuations. For instance, weak corporate earnings in 2024 contributed to market volatility despite DII support.
(6) Risks Mitigated By DII Characteristics
(a) Long-Term Focus: DIIs, unlike speculative retail traders, base decisions on fundamentals, economic outlook, and corporate performance, which reduces the risk of irrational price surges.
(b) Diversified Portfolios: DIIs spread investments across sectors and asset classes, minimising systemic risk from a single sector’s collapse.
(c) Liquidity Support: DIIs enhance market liquidity, ensuring smoother transactions even during FII outflows, which helps prevent panic-driven crashes.
Critical Perspective
While DII inflows have driven market resilience, the risk of a bubble cannot be dismissed entirely. The “bubble triangle” (marketability, cheap money, speculation) outlined by Quinn and Turner applies partially: trading apps and low-cost brokerages have increased market access, low interest rates have fueled investments, and retail speculation is rising. The real risk lies in specific segments (e.g., small-caps, IPOs) rather than the broader market. A sudden shift in sentiment, triggered by global shocks or policy tightening, could expose vulnerabilities.
Recommendations For Investors
(a) Focus on Fundamentals: Invest in companies with strong earnings, reasonable valuations, and sustainable growth, as DIIs do, rather than chasing momentum.
(b) Diversify: Spread investments across sectors to mitigate risks from overvalued segments like small-caps.
(c) Monitor Triggers: Watch for U.S. interest rate hikes, RBI policy changes, or weak corporate earnings, which could prompt DII pullbacks.
(d) Stay Informed: Track DII and FII activity on trusted platforms for insights into market sentiment.
Conclusion
A DII-driven bubble in the Indian stock market is a genuine and serious concern, particularly in overheated segments like IPO, small- and mid-caps, etc where valuations outpace fundamentals. Risks include overvaluation, retail overexposure, and potential liquidity shocks. Investors should remain cautious, prioritise fundamentals, and avoid speculative bets to navigate potential volatility.